[SMM Analysis] Analysis of Indonesia's RKAB Approval Situation

Published: Jan 21, 2025 09:15

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According to SMM estimates, as of January 20, 2025, Indonesia has approved a total RKAB volume of approximately 260 million to 300 million wmt, which includes mine quotas that are already eligible for production and those approved but not permitted for production. At the beginning of the year, Jakarta's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) approved 207 nickel work plans and budgets (RKAB) for 2025 for production, while another 85 RKABs were approved but not allowed for production. Records show that in 2025, ESDM has issued a total of 292 RKAB licenses.

Reviewing 2024, a total of 193 RKABs were approved, with an annual RKAB approval volume of 272 million wmt. SMM analysis indicates that in 2024, the total local demand for Indonesian nickel ore was 256 million wmt, of which 176 million wmt came from demand for Indonesian NPI, 29 million wmt from demand for Indonesian nickel matte, and 49 million wmt from demand for Indonesian MHP. The RKAB approval volume in 2024 slightly exceeded the local annual demand, and from the supply rhythm perspective, RKAB approvals showed a tight-first and loose-later pattern. Additionally, Indonesia imported approximately 10 million wmt of nickel ore from the Philippines in 2024.

For 2025, SMM expects the total local demand for Indonesian nickel ore to reach approximately 312 million wmt, with around 169 million wmt coming from demand for Indonesian NPI, 47 million wmt from the incremental demand for Indonesian nickel matte, and 89 million wmt from the ramp-up of Indonesian MHP. It is expected that Indonesia's nickel ore imports may increase to 13 million wmt this year. Overall, nickel ore quotas in H1 2025 appear relatively loose compared to the same period last year, but there may still be short-term tightness in nickel ore supply during the year. The approval of temporary quotas in mid-year will significantly impact the overall nickel ore supply in H2.

SMM will continue to monitor the approval of Indonesian RKAB quotas in real-time and provide the market with first-hand information.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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